But there are theories that intuitively make sense, says Ames Grawert, justice program senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice. Understanding exactly why homicides rose so dramatically in 2020 – or why they're falling now – is complicated and there are likely many factors. Data from other researchers suggests the decrease will continue for 2023. Homicide numbers have since dropped, but they still aren't back to where they were in 2019, before the pandemic. saw the largest rise in killings in more than a century. Many experts were anticipating a drop, which confirms nationally what they were hearing about fewer reported homicides on the local level.
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